My reply on Quora.com to the question «If Russia decided to print US currency, what will the US do?»
Оригинальный вопрос доступен по этой ссылке.
From some point of view, the question is not quite correct though.
Any good doctor would definitely say that, in case of a disease, nothing could be better than treating the SOURCE of the problem (in comparison with taking actions against a symptom (consequence, not the source)).
So, why would we possibly want to print the money of the US? From any point, especially legal one, counterfeiting money of any country is no good. For any reasons.
Then, let's take a look at the history.
In 1991 AD, when the USSR has been ruined as a result of the criminal acts of Gorbachev, Russia had been forced to integrate itself into the international financial system. The meaning of this I'll explain a bit later — below.
Because, as a result of industrial recycling, privatization and other inconsiderate measures, most agricultural, science-based, defense, industrial entities had been almost dead for about a decade since 1991, — how could we possibly get money for the national budget? Well, by selling oil and gas — the natural resources that have a huge amount of.
But, the problem is — Russian was not able (and still is not capable of) to sell the oil/gas/etc at the international market for Roubles (our national currency). Which means we only can sell for dollars (thus creating demand for them), and then go exchange them to Roubles.
This is sick, right? But this is how it works in the real world.
(Some guys, like Houssain and Kaddafi, tried to even plan (not do) the selling of their resources for national currency (not USD) — well you know the result. US has blocked money of the national «elites» of Iraq and Lybia in its banks, and these «elites» then betrayed their countries).
Now I want to turn back to my explanation, as I promised above.
Economists say that — for the lack of better analogy — "Money is the blood of the economy". Having said this, let's take a look at the human being's body. As child grows to an adult, his body becomes bigger and thus gradually generates more blood cells. Automatically. Depending on the needs of the body. The same is for money. When economy is going upwards, more people are born, more factories and cross-country roads are being built, more cool technologies and startups are being created — economy simply needs more «blood», i.e. money, to satisfy the actual needs.
So, what Russia really needs, is not printing the USD, but the following:
1) Change some specific items in the law, in order to get out of the Federal Reserve control, so as to put the Central Bank into control of the needs of the nation (of interest of Russia and its people).
2) Then, to start selling our resources for OUR national currency.
By doing 1) and 2) it will be possible to reach the ultimate goal: to control the amount of money supply by ourselves, making it bigger or smaller depending on how the national economy is going. Without this done, upon any change of the Bank Law, the US (hoster of the Federal Reserve) could take measures like in 1933 when only grain was accepted as payment media. This could leave Russia without a) food, b) money, what would definitely result in popular protests and most probably coup d'état followed by revolution, deaths, chaos etc. No good, and no ruler, if he is wise enough, would wish this for their nation.
At this moment you might ask, so guys why you just don't do 1) and 2), right?
Well it's complicated though. As S. Jobs said in 2010, "Things are packages of emphasis". Real world is full of relationships and interconnections. You probably know there are so called clans, or «ruling clans». They exist in the US, in Russia, in every major country existing on the planet Earth.
So, our current President, Vladimir Putin, is doing the best he could in the area(s), where, so to speak, «his hands are free enough», e.g. in the area of foreign policy (taking back Crimea (which was conquered by Russian Empire in 1783 and transferred by Khrushchev to Ukrainian SSR in 1954), kicking ass of ISIS and setting up peace in Syria, etc).
The problem is that Russian economy is nowadays being run by totally different clan (liberal one, if we can call it so). And it is not just one person, these are numerous people, some of them are still being controlled from the US (which started in 1991), and they are powerful enough here in Russia.
And therefore it's not possible to, you know, just fire those people :) Taking tough measures regarding these people during small amount of time could, again, result in coup d'état and chaos.
In late 1930-s, when in the similar situation Stalin had to get rid of the bad politicians who could prevent further industrialization at the face of the expected war with Germany, — you now know which attributes are applied to him now for those tough but necessary actions.
Over the following decade, I do believe, it will be possible to overthrow this treacherous economic clan in Russia and replace it with the people which will take care of the nation and its aims and needs, — but right now doing this is simply not possible.
Finally, having explained all of the above, I think you'll understand how silly it is to accuse Putin of just selling resources and not diversifying the economy, the industry of the country.
With 1) and 2) done, and having adherents in Council of Ministers as well as other branches of government, I have no doubt on this account, — he will do all he could to grow our economy nationwide.
He really is doing the best he could for the Russian nation all these years — in terms of the resources available to him.
If Russia decided to print US currency, what will the US do?
From some point of view, the question is not quite correct though.
Any good doctor would definitely say that, in case of a disease, nothing could be better than treating the SOURCE of the problem (in comparison with taking actions against a symptom (consequence, not the source)).
So, why would we possibly want to print the money of the US? From any point, especially legal one, counterfeiting money of any country is no good. For any reasons.
Then, let's take a look at the history.
In 1991 AD, when the USSR has been ruined as a result of the criminal acts of Gorbachev, Russia had been forced to integrate itself into the international financial system. The meaning of this I'll explain a bit later — below.
Because, as a result of industrial recycling, privatization and other inconsiderate measures, most agricultural, science-based, defense, industrial entities had been almost dead for about a decade since 1991, — how could we possibly get money for the national budget? Well, by selling oil and gas — the natural resources that have a huge amount of.
But, the problem is — Russian was not able (and still is not capable of) to sell the oil/gas/etc at the international market for Roubles (our national currency). Which means we only can sell for dollars (thus creating demand for them), and then go exchange them to Roubles.
This is sick, right? But this is how it works in the real world.
(Some guys, like Houssain and Kaddafi, tried to even plan (not do) the selling of their resources for national currency (not USD) — well you know the result. US has blocked money of the national «elites» of Iraq and Lybia in its banks, and these «elites» then betrayed their countries).
Now I want to turn back to my explanation, as I promised above.
Economists say that — for the lack of better analogy — "Money is the blood of the economy". Having said this, let's take a look at the human being's body. As child grows to an adult, his body becomes bigger and thus gradually generates more blood cells. Automatically. Depending on the needs of the body. The same is for money. When economy is going upwards, more people are born, more factories and cross-country roads are being built, more cool technologies and startups are being created — economy simply needs more «blood», i.e. money, to satisfy the actual needs.
So, what Russia really needs, is not printing the USD, but the following:
1) Change some specific items in the law, in order to get out of the Federal Reserve control, so as to put the Central Bank into control of the needs of the nation (of interest of Russia and its people).
2) Then, to start selling our resources for OUR national currency.
By doing 1) and 2) it will be possible to reach the ultimate goal: to control the amount of money supply by ourselves, making it bigger or smaller depending on how the national economy is going. Without this done, upon any change of the Bank Law, the US (hoster of the Federal Reserve) could take measures like in 1933 when only grain was accepted as payment media. This could leave Russia without a) food, b) money, what would definitely result in popular protests and most probably coup d'état followed by revolution, deaths, chaos etc. No good, and no ruler, if he is wise enough, would wish this for their nation.
At this moment you might ask, so guys why you just don't do 1) and 2), right?
Well it's complicated though. As S. Jobs said in 2010, "Things are packages of emphasis". Real world is full of relationships and interconnections. You probably know there are so called clans, or «ruling clans». They exist in the US, in Russia, in every major country existing on the planet Earth.
So, our current President, Vladimir Putin, is doing the best he could in the area(s), where, so to speak, «his hands are free enough», e.g. in the area of foreign policy (taking back Crimea (which was conquered by Russian Empire in 1783 and transferred by Khrushchev to Ukrainian SSR in 1954), kicking ass of ISIS and setting up peace in Syria, etc).
The problem is that Russian economy is nowadays being run by totally different clan (liberal one, if we can call it so). And it is not just one person, these are numerous people, some of them are still being controlled from the US (which started in 1991), and they are powerful enough here in Russia.
And therefore it's not possible to, you know, just fire those people :) Taking tough measures regarding these people during small amount of time could, again, result in coup d'état and chaos.
In late 1930-s, when in the similar situation Stalin had to get rid of the bad politicians who could prevent further industrialization at the face of the expected war with Germany, — you now know which attributes are applied to him now for those tough but necessary actions.
Over the following decade, I do believe, it will be possible to overthrow this treacherous economic clan in Russia and replace it with the people which will take care of the nation and its aims and needs, — but right now doing this is simply not possible.
Finally, having explained all of the above, I think you'll understand how silly it is to accuse Putin of just selling resources and not diversifying the economy, the industry of the country.
With 1) and 2) done, and having adherents in Council of Ministers as well as other branches of government, I have no doubt on this account, — he will do all he could to grow our economy nationwide.
He really is doing the best he could for the Russian nation all these years — in terms of the resources available to him.
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